Browse Objects

In 2021 Honors Economics Posters

Abstract

This paper uses the S&P 500 index as a proxy for the market and follows the methodology in Bijl et al. (2016) to compute an investor attention index by searching company names listed on the S&P 500 index from 2010 to 2019 on Google Trends. Building upon existing literature, this paper proposes a new model that explains the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and investor attention. It is shown that these two variables are positively correlated.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

In 2021 Honors Economics Posters

Abstract

The introduction of One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR) has had a great deal of impact on the integration of China to the global economy. This paper attempts to understand the impact of the initiative on China's trading partners. This paper looks at the gravity estimates of China's trade partner countries before joining the OBOR initiative using data from 2007 to 2012, and compares it with the gravity estimates after joining the initiative using the data from 2013 to 2017. Initially, this paper looks at the textbook gravity model, which only takes into account GDP and distance between two countries. The add-ons are later added to evaluate the specific impact of policy changes introduced by the OBOR initiative.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

In 2021 Honors Economics Posters

Abstract

Women make up 47.0% of the labor force and 50.8% of the United States population, but only 40% of managers, as of 2019. In recent years, more and more women are taking on leadership positions, provoking widespread speculation and debate on the impact a female CEO would have on the financial success of a firm. The data is hand collected from various sources, including LinkedIn, Bloomberg Profiles, and Yahoo Finance; compiled into one dataset from 1978 to 2021. Companies included are different Fortune 500, Fortune 1000, and S and P 500 companies transitioning from a male CEO to a female CEO. This paper will investigate and evaluate the impact of a female in the chief executive officer position on the financial performance of a firm. Additionally, I examine the impact of the change in leadership on specific industry sectors. We hypothesize that if there is a female CEO, the stock returns of the firm will increase.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

Marginal Revenue Product and the Effect of Teammates on Player Productivity in the NHL - This paper creates a process for estimating the marginal revenue products (MRPs) of players in the National Hockey League (NHL). Since hockey is a team sport, where a given player's output depends on the abilities of his surrounding teammates, I wanted to include the effect of a player's teammates in my estimates, which previous MRP calculations for hockey players lack. Using detailed play-by-play data from the NHL's real time scoring system (RTSS), I obtained the total number of goals for and goals against for each combination of players on the ice at a time (five skaters and a goalie). I then estimated several linear OLS regressions to create production equations that explore the impact of each individual players' dummy variable on the goals for and goals against per 60 minutes of ice time for every player combination. Afterwards, I estimated a linear OLS regression, examining how a team's cumulative goals for and goals against impacted its revenue. Taking the dummy variable coefficients from the production equations and the goals for and goals against coefficients from the revenue equation, I created MRP estimates for every NHL player. Ultimately, I created very noisy MRP estimates, partly because the large degree of multicollinearity among the dummy variables in the production equations created imprecise coefficient estimates. While my estimates do not include the impact of a players' teammates, they pave the way for incorporating it in the future by including player pair dummy variables that examine how a player's production changes with different teammates.; How are Trade Policies Affecting Stock Prices of US Multinational Corporations? Evidence from the US-China Trade Dispute - This project studies the US-China trade war consequences in the financial market. Specifically, it evaluates the impact of the trade frictions on US multinational corporation (MNC) stock prices and examines the differentials between corporations that produce tradable goods and corporations that provide services. The Chinese government has been depreciating its currency as a retaliation measure against the continuously rising tariff rates set by the United States. Rather than tariff rates, which has been used in previous literature, this paper uses the China-US exchange rate as a measure of trade frictions. I find that on average, stock prices of US MNCs that produce tradable goods are affected negatively by the devaluating Chinese Yuan. This correlation is especially prominent for MNCs in the automotive and machinery industry.; ASEAN in Global Value Chains: The Effects of Deep Trade Agreements on Value-Added Trade - This thesis investigates the role of trade agreements on global value chains (GVCs) in the context of ASEAN countries. Trade in value added is considered as a close proxy for the extent of trade taking place within the GVCs. In this thesis, three distinct measures of value-added trade at the sectoral level are used: domestic value added (DVA) in gross exports, DVA in intermediates exports, and DVA in final goods exports. In terms of trade agreements, I explicitly address the heterogeneity in their design by computing a series of depth indices based on coverage and legal enforceability. I estimate an augmented gravity equation to investigate whether the composition of trade agreements is relevant for ASEAN’s integration in GVCs. The results suggest that adding policy areas to a trade agreement increase GVCs-related trade among participating countries. More specifically, the effect is driven by value-added in intermediates rather than traditional final goods trade. The content of the trade agreements also matters to trade and varies by WTO membership status of trading partners. Legally enforceable provisions that are under the current scope of WTO mandate have a stronger impact on trade than those beyond WTO regulation. The positive impact of deep trade agreements on ASEAN trade is subject to phase-in effects of up to 10 years after the agreement is enforced.

Type of Resource

VideoObject

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

For decades, the United States has committed to economic integration, but Trump's anti-globalization policies have been challenging this commitment and raised concerns and uncertainty about global trade. Hence, we are interested in investigating how that uncertainty affects investor sentiment. This paper uses the S&P 500 index as a proxy for the market and follows the methodology in Bijl et al. (2016) to compute an investor sentiment index by searching company names listed on the S&P 500 index from 2010 to 2019 on Google Trends. Building upon existing literature, this paper proposes a new model that explains the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and investor attention. It is shown that these two variables are positively correlated. Since Google Trends only display the popularity of searches, but cannot reveal the actual sentiment of people who made these searches, this can be interpreted as investors are curious to learn more about companies that they are interested in as the uncertainty increases. Hence, investors are likely to educate themselves in terms of financial knowledge when the forecast is worrisome. This causal flow from TPU to investor attention is also confirmed by a Granger Causality Test.

Type of Resource

VideoObject

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

This paper seeks to analyze the financial impact of Mergers ad Acquisitions in the United Sates stock market. Previous work has found mixed results based on the time period, payment method, deal size, etc. I select recent data (2007-2017) from the Bloomberg terminal and employ an ordinary least squares regression. 70 merger companies, along with 70 similar control companies are selected for a bootstrapping approach. I look at the merger impact based on 3 channels for 1 year, 1 quarter and 1 month. The data illustrates that M&A does not lead to significant negative nor positive abnormal returns.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

An investigationand evaluation of the impact of a female in the chief executive officer position on the financial performance of a firm. Additionally, an examination ofthe impact of a change in leadership on specific industry sectors. I estimate financial performance by looking at different time frames of the firm's stock returns. I use three channels to investigate my three positive hypotheses: direct, spill-over, and social trend effects. Each channel includes two different categories: the firm perspective on female leadership and the investor perspective. Using data from various sources compiled into one dataset from 1978 to 2021 and performing ordinary least squares regressions, I observe a contrasting result to the original hypothesis. Female leadership has a negative and insignificant impact on firm financial performance; this is deceiving as we find in the long run, a persistent, positive effect of female participation in a leadership group such as the Board of Directors. Female leadership in the long run, among groups, is of particular importance, rather than specifically the leadership in the CEO positions. The increase in female participation in leadership and management groups provides a long-term persistent growth. Firm experience has a positive and significant impact in the short term for the day stock return. Both multinational enterprise and the age of the firm have a negative and significant impact on the year stock return. Analyzing this relationship is important to understand board representation, help executive decisions, and encourage female empowerment.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

This paper looks at the impact of the One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR) on the gravity estimates of China's trade partner countries. More specifically, this paper examines the impact of the initiative on the total value of trade by looking at the nexus of trade and GDP and of trade and distance between China and the host country. This paper does so by using the OLS estimator. We compare the gravity estimates of a country before and after the OBOR initiative was introduced. Initially, we look at the textbook gravity model, which only takes into account GDP and distance between two countries. The value of trade is directly proportional to GDP because the countries with higher GDP are likely to import more due to their higher incomes and export more because of their increased capacity to produce a wide variety of products. On the other hand, the value of total trade between two countries is negatively correlated to the distance between the two countries- a higher distance means a higher cost of transportation of goods and services and vice versa. The add-ons are later incorporated. This paper looks at the gravity estimates of all the countries and not just the OBOR partnering countries because of the lack of access to some OBOR data. Our results show that after the introduction of the OBOR initiative in 2013, the overall average GDP of partner countries increased, the average total trade between China and the trading countries increased, and the average outward-FDI from China to the trading countries increased as well. We found evidence that the OBOR initiative increases the magnitude of the GDP coefficient of the gravity estimation, which shows the importance of integration of economies. We also found evidence that the OBOR initiative increases the magnitude of the distance coefficient of the gravity estimation. This implies friction of distance and suggests that China should use resources to invest in countries further away from it as well.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

In this paper, we review the effect that the boom of China's housing prices has had on the U.S. stock market and the potential connection between the two markets. Looking at it more in-depth, the U.S. stock market focus is on the S&P 500 and the eleven sectors of the stock market (Industrial, Healthcare, Real Estate, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, Information Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services) while the housing prices are dictated by the residential housing price index within China. Given the relatively recent disaster in September 2021 regarding the Evergrande Group and their potential for failure, the connection between the two markets has come more into focus now than in recent history. The Evergrande Group crisis combined with the housing boom has potentially created a bubble primed to burst and has set the stage for a collapse. Using data from April 2005 to October 2021 and running OLS regressions, I conclude that there should be a significant linear positive relationship between the housing prices of China and the U.S. stock market. If this turns out to be a positive relationship, investors should be wary of the potential effects the housing market would have on their portfolio if it were to continue to boom or abruptly burst.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Steinmetz Symposium

Abstract

The rapid industrialization occurring from the late 19th century into the early 20th century provides the opportunity to delve into the impacts it brought for American life. The goal of this paper is to assess how changes in labor productivity from the rise of industrialization impacted total, personal, and corporate income per capita at the state level. To test this relationship, we use data from the Statistics of Income Report and the Statistical Abstract of the United States in order to collect information for the necessary regressions to conduct this study. Using several different channels in order to hypothesize potential outcomes, we highlight the uncertainty brought forward with potential theories providing an explanation for both positive and negative relationships between labor productivity and income per capita. Carrying out our regressions, our results indicate a statistically significant and positive relationship between labor productivity and total, personal, and corporate income per capita. Personal income per capita led with the highest coefficient, potentially demonstrating that workers benefited the most from the increase in labor productivity. This finding allows for discussion into equitable income growth, where the growth in income from the rise of manufacturing productivity happens to benefit the workers more than large capital owners such as corporations.

Type of Resource

DigitalDocument

Rights Statement

Controlled Access Terms

In Honors Theses

Abstract

Peruvian speleothems have been shown to be excellent recorders of paleoclimate by tracking changes in rainfall amount through oxygen isotopes in calcite. Measured changes in rainfall amount have been attributed to changes in the intensity of the South American Seasonal Monsoon (SASM). High insolation in the Southern Hemisphere and low insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is believed to increase the meridional SST gradient, leading to a southerly migration of the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and strengthening of the SASM intensity. Conversely, a decrease in Southern Hemisphere insolation and an increase in Northern Hemisphere insolation is believed to have led the ITCZ to a more northerly mean position and weakening of SASM intensity. I present a record from speleothem 19-11, which grew in Pacupahuain Cave between 167,068 yrs B.P. and 135,165 yrs B.P., also known as the penultimate glacial period or Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS 6). The ?¹⁸O record from 19-11 shows exceptional agreement with overlapping speleothem records from nearby Huagapo Cave (HC). All of these records are anti-phased with 11°S January insolation, supporting the idea that shifts in the mean position of the ITCZ modulate SASM intensity. From 165 ka to 150 ka an increase in ?¹⁸O occurs contemporaneously with a decrease in 11°S Jan insolation. This period of time reflects a broad decrease in SASM intensity, a hypothesis corroborated by decreased sediment input into regional lake records. ?¹⁸O values are lower at the beginning and end of the 19-11 record, coinciding with 11°S Jan insolation highs. Within long-term insolation driven changes in ?¹⁸O, the 19-11 record has rapid oscillations that are also seen in the HC records. Previous researchers have attributed these rapid fluctuations to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere forcing. Increased temperature in the Northern Atlantic and ice sheet melt coincides with apparent weakening of the SASM. This relationship is explained by a weakening of SST gradient and northern migration of the ITCZ. The true cause of this ice melt and increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is not fully understood, however, they show remarkable similarity to events recorded in other proxies during MIS 2. When compared to Chinese and Mediterranean speleothem records it is clear that some of these short-term fluctuations, namely the 161-159 ka event, have profound global significance. The cause and regional effects of short-term oscillations is an important topic for future work.

Type of Resource

Thesis

Rights Statement

In Honors Theses

Abstract

The oil industry has the power to not just move markets, but also influence the success of entire nations. Many studies have examined the dynamic relationship between oil price fluctuations and the macroeconomy of oil-consuming countries. This paper differentiates itself by looking into how oil price fluctuations affect the macroeconomy for a representative oil producer, Russia specifically, using an OLS regression model with a reasonable number of confounding factors. As a leading emerging market nation, Russia has transformed its economy from communism to capitalism, relying on its deep inventory of commodities, such as oil and metals, for success. This paper delves into the intricacies of the Russian Federation and explores a variety of pivotal economic indicators including Russia’s GDP, unemployment rate, and inflation rate. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to a growth in Russian GDP of about 0.035% and a decline in the Russian unemployment rate and inflation rate of about 0.008% and 0.011%, respectively, and holding all else constant.

Type of Resource

Thesis

Rights Statement

In Honors Theses

Abstract

We have successfully created the first example of a bicontinuous conductive polymer network for use in hybrid QD-polymer solar cells via a mechanochemical route. Heterometallic dicyanoaurate coordination polymers were used as intercalative hosts to promote in situ growth of emeraldine polyaniline (PANI), which provides electron conduction pathways within the active layer. Cu2+-excanged Laponite RD nanodiscs were used to direct the self-assembly of the bicontinuous polymer networks and nanomorphology within the nanocomposites. These PANI/Laponite coordination polymers were extensively characterized by scanning electron microscopy, attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and ultraviolet-visible absorption spectroscopy in order to probe polymer-nanoparticle and polymer-polymer interactions. PANI and Laponite both serve to template the coordination polymer composites. Nano- and microstructures ranging from flowers to hollow spheres to wires-upon-wires growth were observed. Several bulk heterojunction solar cell active layers were synthesized by mixing varying ratios of the PANI/Laponite coordination polymer with poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT:PSS), a hole-conductive polymer, and tris(bipyridine)ruthenium(II) chloride (Rubipy), a chromophore. These active layers were used to fabricate bulk heterojunction solar cells. Future work will include making conductivity measurements on these solar cells, as well as fabricating new solar cells with incorporated CdSe quantum dots. The ability to tune Au-Au aurophilic and Au-Se interactions may enhance the monodispersion of semiconductor nanoparticle chromophores, leading to improved photoconductivity.

Type of Resource

Thesis

Rights Statement